Is Rashford back to form for Villa, England or is it a false dawn

Cliff Notes – Is Rashford back to form for Villa, England or is it a false dawn

• Marcus Rashford’s performance at Aston Villa remains ambiguous, with four assists but no goals in nine appearances, raising questions about his true form since leaving Manchester United.
• His recall to the England team may inflate perceptions of his performance, but both Villa and United coaches express doubts about his consistency and impact on the pitch.
• Rashford’s upcoming matches, particularly in the FA Cup and UEFA Champions League, will be crucial in determining whether he can prove his worth and secure a permanent transfer from United.

Is Rashford back to form for Villa, England? Or is it a false dawn?

Is Marcus Rashford really on the way back to his best form at Aston Villa? Or has his recall to the England team given a false impression of the forward’s form since escaping his Manchester United misery on loan in January? It is a £40 million question that Villa must answer over the next two months.

If Villa are convinced, a permanent transfer from United for a pre-agreed £40m fee will happen this summer. But if question marks remain, Rashford will be sent back to Old Trafford with three years left on his £325,000-a-week contract and little hope of resurrecting his career at his boyhood club, where coach Ruben Amorim has repeatedly made clear that the player has no place in his future plans.

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Rashford, 27, is set to make his 10th appearance for Villa in their FA Cup quarterfinal away to EFL Championship team Preston North End on Sunday (stream LIVE, 8:25 a.m. ET, ESPN+) and it will be another opportunity for him to give a clear indication as to whether he really is back on an upwards trajectory, or if the positive spin on his recent performances is nothing more than deflection from a harsher reality.

Few players divide opinion as much as Rashford. If there are doubters and believers, Amorim and his Old Trafford predecessor, Erik ten Hag, are firmly in the “doubters” camp; Villa coach Unai Emery and England’s new boss Thomas Tuchel are in the latter, with both men showing faith in him in recent months.

United supporters, frustrated by Rashford’s failure to justify his huge salary, would point to his lack of consistency, goal threat or team-play prior to his move to Villa, almost two months after his last appearance under Amorim. Though his new fans at Villa Park would cite his blossoming partnership with fellow loanee Marco Asensio as proof that Emery is reigniting his dormant career.

Marcus Rashford has a chance to prove that he’s on the right track this season. Gareth Copley/Getty Images

Precisely where Rashford is right now comes down to interpretation and subjectivity. Are four assists and no goals in nine appearances for Villa a positive return, or an underwhelming contribution? Did his England recall for the World Cup qualifiers against Albania and Latvia, a year after his last international appearance, prove that Villa were right to gamble on a player whose career had ground to a halt at United?

Rashford’s performance data this season, for both United and Villa, is inconclusive and only allows the doubters and believers to cherry-pick evidence to suit their respective arguments.

According to ESPN Global Sports Research, Rashford averaged more sprints per 90 minutes for United this season (21.33) than he has at Villa (17.01). But paradoxically, he has covered more metres per 90 minutes (10,745.9) for Villa than he managed at United (10,204.3) before being dropped by Amorim.

So is he working smarter under Emery, or did Amorim not see the work-rate Rashford was producing at United?

Rashford was also more productive in front of goal for United than he has been at Villa, for whom he still hasn’t scored. In 23 appearances for United, Rashford recorded an Expected Goals (xG) tally of 3.88, with seven goals in all competitions. At Villa, his xG is 1.59, with no goals in 9 games. But, perhaps because of Rashford’s fruitful partnership with Asensio — for whom Rashford has laid on four assists — his Expected Assists (xA) figure is higher at Villa (3.26) than it was at United (2.11).

England coach Tuchel urged Rashford to show “more dribbling and more aggressive runs towards the box” during his underwhelming return to the international scene, when he failed to score or assist in two games against Albania and Latvia and registered an xG of 0.03 and xA of 1.

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How Marcus Rashford can prove that he wasn’t the problem at Manchester United

Mark Ogden breaks down Marcus Rashford’s loan move to Aston Villa from his boyhood club Manchester United.

Former England and Arsenal forward Ian Wright said after those two games that Rashford’s reluctance to take on and beat his defender could cost him a place in future squads.

“The ball gets to him and I’m thinking ‘right, yes, go,’ and it feels like he’s going to do it, then he stops and then he comes back,” he said. “There’s something that’s stopping him, but he’s got to play like he’s going to fail. If I take this guy on and he tackles me, he tackles me — but I might get past him; and then when he does get past people, the actual decision is not great.”

The big winners from Rashford’s return to the England team might be United, whose desperation to offload their one-time boy wonder was given a boost by Tuchel’s decision to restore him to the Three Lions squad. Rashford may have been fortunate to be recalled, but from a United perspective it was only a positive that can increase the player’s transfer value.

Yet Rashford’s failure to make a compelling case that he is on the path to redemption is perhaps the clearest indicator that he still needs to do more. Lucky for him: this is the time of the season to do it.

Villa are just three games from winning the FA Cup for the first time since 1957 and are dreaming of emulating the club’s 1982 European Cup winners by going all the way in the UEFA Champions League, with Paris Saint-Germain to overcome in the quarterfinals.

Despite his critics and detractors, Rashford has a good record of delivering in the big games and he has plenty of those in the weeks ahead. How he performs will decide whether he really is on the way back or if his best days are firmly in the past.