No presidential election in 2025 in Ukraine?

He always gives the same response: “The hot phase of the war will end, and when martial law is lifted, elections will be announced,” the Ukrainian president said earlier this week, in an interview with the British journalist Piers Morgan.

Elections in Ukraine: Part of Trump‘s plan?

There has been more discussion about an election since the recent statements by the new US special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg.

At the beginning of February, Kellogg told the Reuters news agency that the USA wanted Ukraine to hold elections, potentially before the end of this year, especially if Kyiv was able to agree a truce with Moscow in the coming months. Elections, Kellogg said, are “good for democracy.”

No presidential election in 2025 in Ukraine?

Certain US politicians already started calling on Ukraine to hold elections a year ago, despite the ongoing war. In the past year, Russia has also been commenting on the absence of an election in Ukraine. Russian president Vladimir Putin has repeatedly cast doubt on Zelensky’s legitimacy as president, citing the cancellation of the election that was scheduled for the spring of 2024.

Ukraine’s constitution prohibits the holding of elections under martial law. Moscow’s response to this is that it is prepared to negotiate with Zelenskyy, but would not sign a settlement to end the war until a new presidential election had been held in Ukraine.

It is possible that elections in Ukraine are one element of the US plan for ending the Russian war of aggression, the details of which have not yet been disclosed. US special envoy Keith Kellogg is expected in Kyiv this month.

John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Ukraine who now works for the US think-tank The Atlantic Council, told DW that he was not surprised by Russia’s stance. He believes it is part of Moscow’s efforts to stall negotiations aimed at ending the war.

Herbst praised the Trump administration, which he said had “very smartly recognized […] that Putin was the obstacle to talks.” However, he added that it would be a “miscalculation” if Washington thought it could use elections in Ukraine as a means of facilitating negotiations.

Russia insists Ukraine must hold elections

The German commentator Winfried Schneider-Deters, a Ukraine expert, can also see why Russia is adopting this position. “Of course the Russians are demanding and promoting this. They want to create unrest, to create division among the population during an election campaign,” he told DW. “On the other hand, I can’t work out what the Americans’ interest might be.”

Schneider-Deters believes the Russians have “perfidious” motives. His advice to the Zelenskyy government is not to yield to potential pressure from Washington. But it is far from clear whether it would be possible for Ukraine to hold out against its biggest and most important arms supplier.

To date, President Zelenskyy has avoided unambiguous statements, saying only that Ukraine is ready to make compromises, and would like to hold elections, but that certain conditions are required for this to be possible.

The former secretary general of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), Thomas Greminger, warns against going to the polls too soon. “I think that under current conditions it is simply not possible to hold free and fair elections,” he told DW. He pointed out that, for example, large parts of Ukraine are currently under Russian control.

The Swiss diplomat commented that many countries had suffered bad experiences when elections were held too early, whether in Africa, Asia, or the Western Balkans. “A degree of stability and good preparation are required,” he said. Otherwise, there was a danger that, rather than stabilizing the system, elections would have the opposite effect.

Prerequisites for an election in Ukraine

If Ukraine does go ahead and hold elections this year, John Herbst believes it will be dangerous not just for the country’s democracy, but for its security, as well. “There’s no question [but] that the Russians will use this period to strengthen their military position,” he said.

He explained that this was why elections could only be held under certain conditions. According to him, the most important are ones that several of Donald Trump’s allies have already cited: more weapons for Ukraine, a demilitarized zone, and the presence of European troops. If a “serious” ceasefire were to hold, it would be possible to hold elections, said Herbst — but he added that Moscow did not agree to all of these conditions.

Thomas Greminger says that, in order for “free and fair elections” to take place, there has to be freedom of movement for voters and candidates, as well as media freedom, both of which are circumscribed by martial law. He comments that the OSCE could assist with observing the election; he doesn’t think more observers would necessarily be required than on previous occasions.

What is more important, he says, is political stability — and that, in Ukraine, is still “miles away.” The earliest it would be possible to hold elections there, according to Greminger, would be after half a year of a stable, monitored ceasefire. He puts the chances of a presidential election in Ukraine this year at less than one percent.

Winfried Schneider-Deters takes a similar view. The country is currently engaged in a war that, as he puts it, “is not going very well for Ukraine.” In these circumstances, he says, Kyiv has no reason to change its leader, who was elected in 2019 with more than 70% of the vote.

This article has been translated from German.