Day: 23 September 2024

Cabinet will reassure the business world

EU

“Barnier’s cabinet is likely to reassure the business world. … First in terms of method: the prime minister is consulting experts widely and has undertaken to continue doing so in preparation for his government policy statement. This marks the beginning of a culture of compromise that is quite foreign to France. And secondly in the choice of personnel: there are few or no big names in this team, but the ministers are experts in their fields and will be careful not to break with the dynamic created over the past seven years. … With the cast, the method and the direction now set, the 2025 budget will be the acid test.”

New government is unstable, future depends on Le Pen

Europe

“Barnier and Macron want to accommodate French voters on the right and prevent them from voting for far-right parties in even greater numbers in future elections. But paradoxically, the support of Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National must also be secured. The RN is the second-most important opposition party in parliament after the left-wing camp, and will play a crucial role in determining how long the new government remains in office. This shows, in turn, how powerful Le Pen’s party has become in France – even if it is still being kept out of the centre of power.”

Momentum to the right in Europe

Europe

“If you zoom out of France and look at the whole of Europe, you see that by appointing Michel Barnier as prime minister the once moderate Emmanuel Macron has brought his country into line with many of its neighbours. On the same weekend, the AfD only narrowly lost to the SPD in the Brandenburg elections. … In Belgium, a poll published on Saturday showed a Flanders that is further to the right in its voting preferences than ever before – Vlaams Belang is on form. … Above all, these events mark the end of a week in which the new EU Commission has been dominated by the right.”