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Dallas — President Trump calls this week’s Republican National Committee midterm convention a “rally like never before,” and an opportunity to celebrate his administration’s first two years ahead of the November elections. But the convention is taking place as the GOP faces headwinds over the unpopular war in Iran, and Mr. Trump’s approval ratings have continued to slip.

While the president may say he’s reserving the stage for Republican candidates in competitive races, WTX US News has learned dozens in the closest contests nationwide are expected to be no-shows.

Republican leaders and Trump allies are gathering for two days at a downtown Dallas arena, and are holding other off-site donor events and discussions centered around topics like domestic energy production. Loyal Trump supporters are coughing up five-digit sums to their respective national fundraising committees for a ticket. But other Republicans running in competitive races are opting to save the money and campaign in their home districts or states. 

WTX US News attempted to contact 60 battleground gubernatorial, Senate and House candidates, and only four confirmed they would attend the convention. Five told WTX US News they would not be going to Dallas, while the vast majority, 51 candidates, did not reply to WTX US News’ queries. Still, more than two dozen are scheduled to speak at the event, according to the RNC. 

“Our bosses are back home,” said Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who is running for reelection in a Pennsylvania district Mr. Trump won by fewer than 300 votes in 2024 and is not planning to attend the convention. “Times are tough, and we need to be listening to everything they’re saying about the struggles that they’re encountering in their budgets and their kitchen table and their businesses, healthcare and act on it. That’s the way the system’s supposed to work … not going to some convention center holding signs up.”

National parties historically hold nominating conventions every four years. Not since 1982, when Democrats last held a midterm confab, has either party met this way during the off-year elections. The Dallas event, at the American Airlines Center, is expected to look more like a highly produced, extended political rally headlined by Mr. Trump than a typical convention, where the party would conduct official business such as formally selecting a presidential nominee. 

But there are thousands of balloons in nets already hoisted into the arena ceiling, a sign they’ll likely come tumbling down during Thursday’s convention finale.

For candidates running in places where Mr. Trump is popular, it’s an opportunity to capitalize on the president’s unparalleled ability to turn out the base. Overall, more than 100 GOP candidates and elected officials are slated to attend, according to a source familiar. 

“I think it’s going to highlight all the wins that we’ve provided for the American people,” said GOP Rep. Andrew Clyde, who represents a deep-red district in Georgia. “I think it’s important that the American people revisit what this Congress has done, and show the difference between what the Democrats would have done if they were in charge and what the Republicans have done since we’ve been in charge.” 

Mr. Trump has sought to energize his supporters ahead of the midterms, encouraging them to “pretend I’m on the ballot.” The midterm convention could echo that strategy: He plans to attend both nights of the event, with his keynote address slated for Wednesday. Vice President Vance is set to headline Thursday and speeches by Cabinet secretaries, including Attorney General Todd Blanche and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and other Trump allies will fill much of the schedule.

RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre said the event is intended “to drive turnout to the polls in November.” 

“The purpose is to rally voters around the president, his agenda and candidates who are going to highlight that agenda in Congress,” Baldassarre said. 

But in some of the most hotly contested House and Senate races, a close association with Mr. Trump and the national party could carry risks. Historically, the incumbent president’s party has almost always lost ground in midterm elections, and Mr. Trump’s lagging approval ratings present a risk for his party. A WTX US News poll in late July showed he had a 39% approval rating — a drop of 5 points since March.

“I’m focused on the constituents in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District,” Gabe Evans, who is running in a razor-tight race in a district north of Denver, told WTX Colorado last month. “I’m going to be in D.C. voting for them or I’m going to be back [in Colorado].”

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, who represents a red South Florida district that’s become more competitive, won’t be travelling to Texas either. 

“I am going to be in my district,” Salazar said. “I have to be campaigning. No one votes for me in Washington or in Dallas. I have to be in Miami.”

Other lawmakers in competitive districts are planning to attend the event. Among the battleground members scheduled to speak at the convention are Reps. Mike Lawler of New York, Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin, Monica De La Cruz of Texas and Rob Bresnahan of Pennsylvania.

Sunoco Chair Ray Washburne, who is chairing the convention’s host committee, said many candidates are planning to attend. In an interview on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan,” he called the event “very advantageous” for the candidates who choose to attend, offering them opportunities to network with donors, Trump administration officials and other GOP heavyweights.

“We have a high degree of candidates coming, we pretty much have every race represented here, except for a couple that couldn’t break away,” he said.

Last week, House Speaker Mike Johnson predicted to reporters “a huge number” of members and candidates would attend. 

“Some people made individual decisions based upon what’s best for their district and all that, but we’ll have at least an appearance by most of our members,” Johnson said.

The House GOP’s fundraising arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee, initially asked House members to contribute at least $25,000 if they wanted to attend the convention. But Rep. Richard Hudson, who chairs the committee, said he gave out 2,000 free tickets to colleagues and staff. 

Asked whether some members had expressed concern about the $25,000 price tag, Hudson told WTX US News he “gave them free tickets because […] we have plenty of tickets for the convention itself, but just like at every convention, we sell a fundraising package, and so there was some confusion about that.” 

Meanwhile, RNC has spent months wooing the party’s most generous and well-connected “bundlers,” or those who can help raise money for the party or key candidates through their personal and professional networks.

One bundler, who’s attended conventions for decades, said there’s little appetite to attend a late summer gathering in Texas when so many of the party’s most vulnerable candidates may not bother to show up. 

“They are in a problem in Dallas,” the bundler said. “Who wants to come?”

VIP options for donors giving $100,000+

Part of the frustration, and a turn-off for some key party figures, is the RNC’s early request for attendees to fork over five- or six-figure sums to attend lavish events earlier in the week.

In one August email to a donor reviewed by WTX US News, RNC offered donation packages starting at $15,000 that included an invitation to the midterm convention. There were also premium options that included VIP events at $150,000 and $105,000 as well as mid-tiered options at $60,000 and $30,000.

“At one point they were going to charge delegates and some candidates who get to speak,” said the bundler, who was granted anonymity to speak frankly about party operations and so as to not upset RNC leaders.

Some unhappy about event appearing to be aimed at boosting Paxton

The other bother for some who are skipping the Dallas confab is how it seems  designed to buoy Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a figure despised by many in the Republican donor community, given his decades of transgressions. Paxton survived an impeachment trial in 2023 over allegations of bribery, dereliction of duty and disregard of official duties. 

Paxton is in a tight race with Democrat James Talarico in the Texas U.S. Senate race,  polling shows, and he’s trailing Talarico in fundraising. 

Paxton is the first major beneficiary of the Trump political operation’s nine-figure war chest in the midterms. The MAGA Inc. super PAC reported spending $10 million on pro-Paxton and anti-Talarico ads beginning last weekend.

Mr. Trump said last week the convention would have “a lot of speakers,” but “the [one] we want to focus on will be obviously Ken Paxton.”

“We gotta get him elected. He’s a good man,” Mr. Trump said, calling Paxton a “phenomenal attorney general,” though he acknowledged: “I’ll be honest, some people don’t like an interview he’ll do, or something.”

Many of the party’s most active Texas-based donors have close personal ties to Republican Sen. John Cornyn, whom Paxton defeated in an expensive primary, and they see no reason to help Paxton, who’s never sought to cultivate their support. 

“Paxton is in real trouble,” the donor said. 

It’s typical for national committees to charge large amounts for donors and members to attend conventions, but those conventions typically offer an opportunity to take part in or influence official party business. 

One Republican donor attending the Dallas convention noted that a lot of party business happens off-camera at conventions regardless and said the attendees help make the event “self-sustaining.”

“I don’t want to see our ad money burned to do this. It is going to be a big ad to some extent… but I’d like to have it funded by people who wanna go and take part in it,” the donor said. “This should be additive to our usual program, rather than a substitute to it.”