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Daniel Kinahan arrested in Dubai on serious organised crime charges

Get you up to speed: Daniel Kinahan arrested in Dubai on serious organised crime charges

Daniel Kinahan, alleged leader of the Kinahan organised crime group, has been arrested in the United Arab Emirates. His arrest was made in accordance with an extradition agreement between Ireland and the UAE, following an arrest warrant from the Irish authorities for serious organised crime offences.

Daniel Kinahan has been arrested in the United Arab Emirates on serious organised crime charges, with Irish police confirming their awareness of the situation following a warrant issued by Irish courts. According to Dubai Police, the arrest was part of efforts to combat cross-border crime, initiated after receiving a judicial file from Irish authorities detailing Kinahan’s alleged involvement in an international criminal organisation.

Daniel Kinahan has been arrested in the United Arab Emirates on an Irish arrest warrant, with plans for his extradition being initiated by Dubai public prosecution based on a judicial file from Irish authorities. Irish Minister Jim O’Callaghan emphasised the importance of international cooperation in combatting organised crime, which has been enhanced through recent bilateral treaties between Ireland and the UAE.

‘Cartel kingpin’ Daniel Kinahan arrested in Dubai on organised crime charges | News World

Daniel Kinahan arrested in Dubai on serious organised crime charges
Daniel Kinahan is alleged to be a leader of the Kinahan organised crime group

Daniel Kinahan, alleged to be a leader of the Kinahan organised crime group, has been arrested in the United Arab Emirates.

Irish police said they were aware of the arrest of a man in his late 40s, on foot of an arrest warrant issued by the Irish courts in relation to alleged serious organised crime offences.

The gardai said the arrest is in accordance with the bilateral agreement on extradition between Ireland and United Arab Emirates.

Dubai Police said the arrest took place on April 15.

The High Court in Dublin previously named Kinahan, who lives in the UAE, as a senior figure in an organised crime gang involved in international drug trafficking operations and firearm offences.

The Kinahan cartel was involved in a feud with the rival Hutch crime gang in Ireland, which began in 2015.

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An attempt was made on Daniel Kinahan’s life at a boxing weigh-in at the Regency Hotel in Dublin a year later.

A gardai statement said the arrest was an ‘important demonstration of the need for international law enforcement co-operation in tackling transnational organised crime’.

The statement said: ‘The arrest of the Irish national in Dubai remains a matter for the authorities in the United Arab Emirates at this time.

‘An Garda Siochana has been steadfast in our determination that we would pursue those allegedly involved in serious organised criminal activity, wherever they go.

Handout issued by Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, a US state department, of a poster issued in April 2022 offering a reward of $5million for the arrest and/or conviction of Daniel Kinahan. Kinahan is being sought by Transnational Organized Crime Rewards Program (TOCRP) for his part in the Kinahan organised crime group. Issue date: Tuesday April 12, 2022.
A poster issued in April 2022 offering a reward of $5million for the arrest and/or conviction of Daniel Kinahan (Picture: PA)

CAPTION: Wanted posters for Irish drugs smugglers Daniel, Christy and Christopher Kinahan Jr. Sanctions were imposed on the Kinahan cartel in 2022, prohibiting financial institutions and businesses from dealing with the family, their associates and companies. Source: US Department of the Treasury Taken from https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2026/03/07/new-footage-shows-wanted-kinahan-cartel-kingpins-post-sanctions/
Wanted posters for accused drugs smugglers Daniel, Christy and Christopher Kinahan Jr

‘Today’s arrest is another extremely important demonstration of the need for international law enforcement co-operation in tackling transnational organised crime.

‘An Garda Siochana has developed many major international partnerships in our efforts to target transnational organised crime groups.

‘Our relationship with the authorities in the United Arab Emirates, the Ministry of Justice at judicial level, and on a police-to-police basis, is valued.

‘This relationship has been supported by the Irish Government Department of Justice, Home Affairs and Migration and Department of Foreign Affairs.’

Dubai Police said they had arrested an ‘Irish fugitive for his alleged role in an international organised crime network’.

A spokesperson said: ‘The arrest comes as part of efforts to combat cross-border crime.

‘The arrest followed the receipt of a judicial file from Irish authorities detailing the suspect’s alleged crimes and his involvement in an international criminal organisation.

‘Based on the file, Dubai public prosecution issued an arrest warrant to initiate legal procedures ahead of his extradition.

‘Specialised teams immediately launched intensive search and surveillance operations, leading to the suspect’s capture within 48 hours of the warrant being issued.

Daniel and Christy Kinahan
Kinahan was arrested in Dubai

‘Dubai police confirmed that the arrest took place on April 15, reflecting the force’s rapid response and operational readiness in handling international cases.

‘Dubai police further reaffirmed their commitment to supporting global efforts to combat organised crime and pursuing internationally wanted individuals.

‘They also highlighted the importance of close cooperation with law enforcement agencies worldwide to enhance security, strengthen partnerships, and ensure safer communities.’

Kinahan’s involvement in boxing caused controversy in 2020 when heavyweight Tyson Fury thanked him for reaching an agreement for him to take on Anthony Joshua.

Fury said he was responsible for organising ‘the biggest fight in British boxing history’.

But within weeks Fury’s team announced that Kinahan would no longer negotiate for him.

Irish Minister Jim O’Callaghan welcomed the arrest.

He said: ‘Today’s arrest follows my request to the UAE for extradition of this individual to face charges in Ireland.

‘In recent years, the UAE and Ireland have worked closely together to advance criminal investigations into serious and organised crime, including the agreement of bilateral treaties on extradition and mutual legal assistance in 2025.

‘I have spoken today with my UAE counterpart minister of justice, His Excellency Abdullah Sultan bin Awad Al Nuaimi, to express my thanks and to acknowledge the strong judicial co-operation in criminal matters between Ireland and the UAE.

‘I would like to commend all involved in today’s development, which is the result of tireless work by the Garda National Drugs and Organised Crime Bureau, the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions, officials in the Department of Justice with their UAE counterparts, the Department of Foreign Affairs and other agencies.’

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Court hears trial of five accused in Russia-linked parcel bomb case

Court hears trial of five accused in Russia-linked parcel bomb case

Court Trial

A Vilnius court has started a trial involving five individuals accused of sending self-igniting explosive packages through DHL and DPD to Germany, Poland, and Britain in 2024.
Scale of Threat
Twenty-two individuals are implicated in supporting Russian intelligence, with Poland identified as the “most frequently targeted country” for Russian sabotage efforts in Europe.
Court Statement
“During the hearings, data regarding identified and wanted persons may be disclosed,” said prosecutor Šarūnas Astrauskas as the trial commenced.

Key developments

A Vilnius court has commenced a trial concerning parcels linked to Russian military intelligence, with five individuals accused of sending explosive devices to Western nations via DHL and DPD.

Prosecutor Šarūnas Astrauskas indicated that further details about other wanted individuals may emerge during hearings, as investigators pursue additional suspects believed to be involved.

Trial of five men accused of sending exploding parcels for Russia starts in Lithuania

Court hears trial of five accused in Russia-linked parcel bomb case

Published on

A Vilnius court began a trial on Friday into an allegedly Russia-linked case where parcels with exploding devices were sent to several Western countries from Lithuania through delivery networks.

Five people are accused of working with Russia’s military intelligence agency GRU to prepare and send self-igniting packages via DHL and DPD that detonated in Germany, Poland and Britain in 2024.

“During the hearings, data…regarding identified and wanted persons may be disclosed,” prosecutor Šarūnas Astrauskas told the court, according to the BNS agency.

He said other members of the alleged terrorist group were being sought.

In July 2024, a Lithuanian citizen and accomplices “used the delivery and transportation services of DHL and DPD companies and sent four parcels from Vilnius with homemade explosive-incendiary devices,” according to the prosecutors.

A fourth parcel was intercepted by officials and did not detonate due to a malfunction.

Investigators found that two test parcels had been sent to the United States and Canada, while two others intended for those countries were found in Amsterdam.

A joint investigation team was created at Eurojust, consisting of Lithuania, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands and Britain and receiving support from Estonia, Latvia, the United States, Canada and Europol.

According to their investigation, 22 individuals are believed to have acted in the interests of Russian intelligence services.

Eurojust claims the suspects were recruited through online messaging platforms, with tasks being divided among them.

Investigators believe those recruited mostly comprised poorer people living in Lithuania, Poland, Russia, Ukraine and Latvia.

Five suspects are currently on trial in connection with the sabotage case in Poland and international arrest warrants are out for another five.

According to a report by the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism, Poland is the “most frequently targeted country” for Russian sabotage campaigns across Europe.

Lithuania and Germany were tied for third place.

Additional sources • AFP

Iran Declares Strait of Hormuz Open While Trump Says US Blockade Remains

Media Lens: Iran Declares Strait of Hormuz Open While Trump Says US Blockade Remains


Dow rallies 1,100 points after Iran opens Strait of Hormuz.

The Dow rallied 1,100 points, and the S&P 500 topped 7,100 for the first time after Iran declared that the Strait of Hormuz was open. Coverage in latest US news and US and global politics details the events surrounding these developments.


What happened

Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open for shipping, which has led to significant market reactions. Following this announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by over 1,000 points, and the S&P 500 reached a milestone of over 7,100 for the first time.

Despite Iran’s declaration, there are concerns from shipowners and oil traders about the implications of the U.S. blockade still being in effect. This situation has raised questions about the stability of oil transportation through the Strait amid geopolitical tensions.

Key facts

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied by 1,100 points.
  • The S&P 500 topped 7,100 for the first time.
  • Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open to shipping.
  • Trump stated that the U.S. blockade remains active.
  • Oil prices plunged by 13% following the announcement.

Where coverage differs

  • CNBC emphasizes the stock market’s rise, while CNN emphasizes the implications of geopolitical events.
  • CNN foregrounds oil market reactions rather than broader economic impacts as seen in Bloomberg.
  • Bloomberg prioritizes detailed analysis of oil trades, while CNBC focuses on stock market trends.

One story, four angles


CNNOil plunges 13%, Dow soars 1,000 points after Iran says Strait of Hormuz is ‘completely open’ during ceasefire

Publication: CNN | Primary framing pattern: consequence | Tone: urgent | Intensity: 8/10 | Sentiment: positive | Legal precision: moderate

Expand

Espresso Shot: CNN emphasizes dramatic market reactions following Iran’s claims about the Strait of Hormuz, showcasing the economic implications of international conflicts. The language conveys urgency amidst shifting geopolitical landscapes.

Publication emphasis: The publication underscores the economic impacts of geopolitical events.

Framing analysis: The economic outcomes of Iran’s declaration are foregrounded, while the long-term implications for regional stability are secondary.

Bias: Selection: Focus on stock market fluctuations. Language: Words like “plunges” and “soars” create a sense of urgency. Omission: Lack of in-depth analysis on the potential for future conflict.

Assessment: CNN effectively communicates the immediate economic ramifications, contributing to a sense of crisis surrounding the geopolitical situation.


CNBCDow rallies 1,100 points, S&P 500 tops 7,100 for the first time after Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open: Live updates

Publication: CNBC | Primary framing pattern: consequence | Tone: optimistic | Intensity: 7/10 | Sentiment: positive | Legal precision: high

Expand

Espresso Shot: CNBC highlights positive stock market movements as a response to Iran’s declarations, emphasizing how geopolitical developments can trigger financial optimism. The language is encouraging and focused on market resilience.

Publication emphasis: CNBC centers on the market’s reaction to geopolitical news.

Framing analysis: Positive market outcomes are foregrounded, while potential risks associated with geopolitical tensions remain secondary.

Bias: Selection: Concentration on stock performance following news. Language: Use of words like “rallies” conveys positivity. Omission: Lack of discussion on potential stock market volatility in response to future news.

Assessment: CNBC successfully illustrates the link between geopolitical events and market responses, maintaining a positive tone.


Bloomberg.comShipowners and Oil Traders Wary as Iran Says Hormuz Fully Open

Publication: Bloomberg.com | Primary framing pattern: legal | Tone: cautious | Intensity: 6/10 | Sentiment: neutral | Legal precision: high

Expand

Espresso Shot: Bloomberg stresses the cautious sentiment among industry professionals regarding Iran’s claim about the Strait of Hormuz, reflecting concerns about the legal and security implications for maritime trade. The tone is deliberately cautious.

Publication emphasis: The publication underscores the apprehensive perspectives of market players regarding shipping safety.

Framing analysis: Industry wariness is foregrounded, with economic implications treated as secondary.

Bias: Selection: Focus on the concerns of trade professionals. Language: Use of “wary” underscores caution. Omission: Less emphasis on direct financial impacts.

Assessment: Bloomberg provides a nuanced view of the implications for the shipping industry, prioritizing caution over optimism.


Food for thought

CNBC employs the strongest legal framing by citing Iran’s assertion that the Strait of Hormuz is “open to shipping,” which underscores a regulatory perspective that highlights national sovereign rights. Conversely, CNN adopts the most escalatory framing, emphasizing the volatility of the situation with the phrase “Oil plunges 13%” as it links economic ramifications to military tensions, portraying an immediate threat to global stability. Bloomberg’s coverage, titled “Shipowners and Oil Traders Wary as Iran Says Hormuz Fully Open,” leans towards a cautious realism, addressing the concerns of vested interests without inciting panic. The facts do not change. What changes is where scrutiny lands.

Nursery worker sentenced for toddler’s death during sleep attempt | News UK

Get you up to speed: Nursery worker sentenced for toddler’s death during sleep attempt | News UK

LEGAL SENTENCE
Kimberly Cookson received a sentence of three years and four months at Wolverhampton Crown Court for gross negligence manslaughter after suffocating toddler Noah Sibanda at Fairytales Day Nursery.
LEGAL AFTERMATH
Deborah Latewood, the nursery owner, has pleaded guilty to a Health and Safety at Work Act offence due to her negligence regarding the dangerous sleep practices.
LEGAL DEVELOPMENTS
Deborah Latewood, owner of Fairytales Day Nursery, is due to be sentenced for a Health and Safety at Work Act offence related to the incident.

What we know so far

A nursery worker has been jailed for three years and four months for the gross negligence manslaughter of a toddler. Kimberly Cookson, 23, was sentenced at Wolverhampton Crown Court after pleading guilty to the charges stemming from an incident involving 14-month-old Noah Sibanda in December 2022 at the now-closed Fairytales Day Nursery in Dudley, West Midlands.

Cookson restrained Noah face down in a sleeping bag and placed a blanket over his head in an effort to make him sleep. CCTV footage captured her using her leg to prevent him from moving. Noah was left unattended for over two hours during this incident, leading to his suffocation.

Noah was subsequently found unresponsive and declared dead in hospital about an hour later. His parents expressed their devastation, with mother Masi stating that the nursery staff were “playing Russian roulette with our children’s lives.” Nursery owner Deborah Latewood, 55, has also admitted to a Health and Safety at Work Act offence and is awaiting sentencing.

This case has raised serious questions regarding the practices at the nursery, highlighting the need for stricter regulations in child care settings to ensure the safety of vulnerable children.

Read in full

Nursery worker jailed for killing toddler while trying to make him go to sleep | News UK

Nursery worker sentenced for toddler’s death during sleep attempt | News UK
Kimberly Cookson had wrapped Noah Sibanda in a sleeping bag and restrained him face down
(Picture: SWNS/WEST MIDLANDS POLICE)

A nursery worker has been jailed for three years and four months after restraining and suffocating a toddler to get him to sleep.

Noah Sibanda was 14-months-old when he was left unchecked by staff for more than two hours at the now-closed Fairytales Day Nursery in Dudley, West Midlands.

Kimberly Cookson had wrapped him in a sleeping bag and restrained him face down in a bid to force him to go to sleep in December 2022.

CCTV showed her placing a blanket over his head and putting her left leg on him to stop him moving.

The 23-year-old, who was 20 at the time of the incident, pleaded guilty to gross negligence manslaughter and is being sentenced at Wolverhampton Crown Court.

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FILE PICTURE - Noah Sibanda who died after the incident at Fairytales Nursery. // A nursery has pleaded guilty to corporate manslaughter after a 14-month-old boy suffocated to death while staff tried to make him take a nap. Noah Sibanda was being cared for at Fairytales Nursery in Dudley, West Mids, when staff tried to get him to fall asleep by
Noah Sibanda who died after the incident at Fairytales Nursery (Picture: West Midlands Police/SWNS)

Noah was declared dead in hospital around an hour after being found unresponsive.

Noah’s mum Masi said staff at the nursery ‘were playing Russian roulette with our children’s lives’.

She said: ‘I handed Noah over to the people who killed him.

‘Because of this I cannot forgive myself and consequently will never forgive the defendants.’

Noah’s father Thulani said: ‘My son died at just 14-months-old because of the gross negligence of someone who was trusted to care for him.

‘When a child is taken from this world the loss is immeasurable. Noah’s absence is felt in every corner of our lives.

‘Noah deserved to live. He deserved to be protected and we deserved to watch him grow up.’

Nursery owner Deborah Latewood, aged 55, is also facing sentence.

Latewood, of Dudley, has admitted a Health and Safety at Work Act offence on the basis that she did not know children were being put down to sleep in a dangerous way, but should have known.

Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open for commercial vessels during ceasefire

Get you up to speed: Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open for commercial vessels during ceasefire

The Strait of Hormuz is “completely open” for the duration of the ceasefire, as announced by Iran’s foreign minister, Seyed Abbas Aragchi. All commercial vessels will be allowed to pass through the strait for the remainder of the truce, according to the Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Seyed Abbas Aragchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open” for commercial vessels during the ceasefire, as per the Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer stated it is crucial to build a coalition around the principle that the ceasefire should be permanent and the strait should remain open.

Seyed Abbas Aragchi announced that “all commercial vessels” will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz for the remaining period of the ceasefire following the ceasefire in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer pledged to work towards a permanent ceasefire and opened discussions with Emmanuel Macron and 40 countries in Paris to formulate plans for a multinational mission to protect freedom of navigation.

Iran declares Strait of Hormuz ‘completely open’ for rest of ceasefire | News World

The Strait of Hormuz, a strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, seen from space.
The Strait of Hormuz is a small strip of water connecting the Persian Gulf to the world’s oceans (Picture: Shutterstock / lavizzara)

The Strait of Hormuz is ‘completely open’ for the duration of the ceasefire, Iran’s foreign minister has announced.

Seyed Abbas Aragchi said ‘all commercial vessels’ will be allowed to pass through the strait for the remainder of the truce.

His full post on X says: ‘In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.’

US President Donald Trump reacted to the news with a Truth Social post saying: ‘The Strait of Hormuz is completely open and ready for business and full passage.’

The Strait of Hormuz is a small strip of water connecting the Persian Gulf to the world’s oceans.

The vital oil and gas shipping route has been effectively closed since the US-Israeli bombing campaign began at the end of February, forcing up energy and fuel prices around the world.

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In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) April 17, 2026

The news led to sharp falls in global oil prices on the expectation of increased supply if tankers can get through.

Brent crude fell more than 10% to just over 89 US dollars a barrel in afternoon trading on Friday, and stock markets across Europe also soared.

The FTSE 100 index lifted 0.6% to 10,656, while the Dax in Germany surged 2% and France’s Cac 40 was 1.7% higher.

A map image showing the Strait of Hormuz blockade by the US
The strait has been blockaded by Iran since the joint US-Israeli strikes on the country began at the end of February, threatening world oil supplies

The US and Iran are in the middle of a fragile truce which is due to last until April 22, while Israel and Lebanon have begun a 10-day ceasefire.

The strait had been blockaded by Iran since the beginning of the conflict in late February, threatening world oil supplies.

In retaliation, Trump has begun his own blockade of Iran’s oil ports, aimed at stemming Tehran’s fossil fuel income, and demanded allied nations help end Tehran’s stranglehold on the strait.

Trump added in his Truth post that ‘the naval blockade will remain in full force and effect as it pertains to Iran, only until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100% complete’.

‘This process should go very quickly in that most of the points are already negotiated.’

The announcement on reopening the strait came as Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron hosted a meeting in Paris aimed at safeguarding the flow of trade through the maritime chokepoint once hostilities in the Middle East cease.

A vessel at the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman???s Musandam province, April 12, 2026. REUTERS
A vessel at the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman’s Musandam province (Picture: Reuters)

French President Emmanuel Macron greets British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, ahead of bilateral talks and a multinational virtual summit at the Elysee Presidential Palace, in Paris, France, on April 17, 2026. Tom Nicholson/Pool via REUTERS
French President Emmanuel Macron greets British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the Elysee Presidential Palace (Picture: Reuters)

In Paris, Sir Keir pledged to do ‘everything I can’ to reopen the route as he joined the international talks, which do not feature the US, Israel or Iran.

Friday’s meeting at the Elysee Palace brings together 40 countries and the International Maritime Organisation to formulate plans for a multinational mission to protect freedom of navigation.

The Prime Minister and the French President met in the courtyard of the Elysee Palace, Mr Macron’s official residence, where they shook hands warmly before posing for photographs.

Sir Keir said: ‘It is very important that we build a coalition of countries around the principle that the ceasefire should be permanent, there should be a deal, and that the Strait of Hormuz is open.’

Accompanied by Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper and Chief of the Defence Staff Sir Richard Knighton, the Prime Minister was calling for a ‘multinational initiative to protect freedom of navigation’.

‘We must reassure commercial shipping and support mine clearance operations to ensure a return to global stability and security,’ he said.

The talks in Paris will be followed by a multinational military planning summit at the UK’s permanent joint headquarters in Northwood, north-west London, next week.

But it remains highly unlikely that any of the countries taking part on Friday will deploy ships to the Strait of Hormuz until the war is over.

Such a move is deemed too dangerous because of the risk that vessels could be attacked from Iran’s shoreline.

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European Commission denies jet fuel shortages amid Iran conflict warnings

European Commission denies jet fuel shortages amid Iran conflict warnings

Fuel Supply Assurance
The European Commission stated there are currently no fuel shortages in the EU, despite the International Energy Agency’s warnings of a looming jet fuel crisis.
Market Stability
Jet fuel prices have surged by 95% since late February, highlighting substantial volatility in the aviation sector amid geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains.
Commission reassures
“There are currently no fuel shortages in the EU,” stated Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen, citing insights from the oil coordination group monitoring the situation.

Key developments

The European Commission dismissed jet fuel shortage concerns, stating there are currently no shortages in the EU. This follows an IEA warning about scarcities amid geopolitical tensions.

Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen confirmed that the market is tight but assured that the oil coordination group’s weekly assessments show sufficient fuel availability within the EU.

EU downplays jet fuel shortage risks despite IEA warning

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The European Commission dismissed concerns over jet fuel shortages on Friday, a day after the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) leader, Fatih Birol, warned that aviation fuel was enough for roughly another six weeks amid the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen acknowledged that the market is “tight” but said “there are currently no fuel shortages” in the EU, based on information from the oil coordination group, which convenes industry and EU countries and has been meeting weekly with the EU executive to assess the situation.

A day earlier, IEA’s chief Fatih Birol warned about the increasing scarcity of jet fuel in Europe, saying that “flights from city A to city B might be cancelled as a result of a lack of jet fuel” if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Jet fuel prices have increased by 95% since the United States and Israel launched military attacks against Iran on 28 February. The war has culminated in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy trade route handling around 20% of global crude oil exports, placing significant strain on global energy markets.

The IEA had previously warned about the severity of constrained supplies, identifying jet fuel as the most affected refined product due to disruptions in the Strait, and foreseeing shortages in April and May.

Aviation sector flags jet fuel crisis

The warning was backed by the airport sector, which urged the European Commission on 9 April to act on the plausible eventuality that a jet fuel shortage in the EU is an “imminent systemic risk” due to geopolitical disruption.

“At this stage, we understand that if the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next 3 weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU,” reads a letter from Airports Council International (ACI) Europe dated 9 April.

ACI Europe pointed to an analysis of jet fuel supply at European airports, focusing on the level of strategic jet fuel reserves and the impact of military activity on jet fuel demand, saying it “only reinforces our concerns.”

The International Air Transport Association (IATA), representing several airlines, estimated on Friday that “by the end of May we could start to see some cancellations in Europe for lack of jet fuel”.

“Along with doing everything possible to secure alternative supply lines, it’s important that authorities have well-communicated and well-coordinated plans in place in case rationing becomes necessary, including for slot relief,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Dutch airline KLM has cancelled more than 150 European flights due to rising jet fuel costs. Other airlines have started cutting back on flight routes or axing routes entirely.

The Commission maintains that there is “no indication of systemic fuel shortages” that would lead to widespread flight cancellations, saying that “these decisions are taken by individual airports”.

Cautiously optimistic

Despite clashing with the IEA’s and industry’s warnings, the Commission said it is nonetheless “preparing for possible supply shortages for jet fuels,” adding that they “remain a concern”.

“The European Union will be preparing to launch possible coordinated actions as regards jet fuels,” Itkonen told reporters, noting the bloc keeps emergency stocks that can be released.

“Despite these assessments of how long or not (will jet fuel be available), it does not mean that we will be completely running out of jet fuel,” Itkonen added, noting the fuel is part of a global market, supported by continuous production imports and stocks.

The EU’s refineries account for roughly 70% of the bloc’s jet fuel consumption, with the remainder reliant on Middle Eastern imports.

EU transport ministers will hold an emergency meeting on 21 April with likely discussions on jet fuels.

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