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- Malaysia’s Karex Bhd increases condom prices by up to 30% amid supply chain issues
- NATO intercepts Russian bombers and jets over the Baltic Sea
- ‘Schools may inspect pencil cases or use scanners to enforce phone ban’ | News UK
- Japan raises mega-quake warning level following 7.7 magnitude earthquake
- US-Iran Tensions Escalate Ahead of Ceasefire Deadline Amid Negotiation Stalemate
- Macron meets Lebanese PM Salam amid rising tensions in Lebanon’s border area
- UK Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Falls to 4.9%, Fueling Economic Debate
- Trump Wants ‘Better’ Deal Than Iran Nuclear Agreement He Rejected
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Malaysia’s Karex Bhd increases condom prices by up to 30% amid supply chain issues
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Get you up to speed: Malaysia’s Karex Bhd increases condom prices by up to 30% amid supply chain issues
Karex Bhd, the world’s top condom producer, is increasing prices by up to 30% due to supply chain disruptions linked to the war in Iran. The company has reported a surge in condom demand while facing rising costs for raw materials used in manufacturing.
Karex Bhd, the world’s largest condom producer, is increasing prices by up to 30% due to supply chain disruptions caused by the war in Iran, according to CEO Goh Miah Kiat. The company has reported escalating costs for raw materials such as synthetic rubber and packaging due to the ongoing conflict.
Karex Bhd has indicated that condom prices could rise by up to 30% due to ongoing supply chain disruptions related to the war in Iran. The company is also experiencing a significant increase in demand, which is further straining its ability to maintain stock levels for clients, including Durex and Trojan.
The Iran war might make it more expensive to have sex | News World
Hoping to get a bit of action between the sheets this year? It might cost you more than you think.
The world’s top condom producer is hiking prices by up to 30% and placing the blame on Donald Trump’s war in Iran.
Malaysia’s Karex Bhd said prices could spike even further if supply chain disruptions persist due to the war in Iran.
Karex is also seeing a surge in condom demand as rising freight costs and shipping delays have left many of its customers with lower stockpiles than usual, CEO Goh Miah Kiat revealed.
‘The situation is definitely very fragile, prices are high… We have no choice but to transfer the costs right now to the customers,’ Goh said.
Karex produces over 5 billion condoms annually and is a supplier to leading brands like Durex and Trojan, as well as state health systems such as Britain’s NHS and global aid programmes run by the United Nations.
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The condom giant is joining a growing list of companies facing supply chain issues because of the ongoing conflict.
The company supplies condoms to Durex and Trojan (Picture: AFP)
The war has strained energy and petrochemical flows from the Middle East, disrupting procurement of raw materials.
Since the conflict began in late February, Karex has seen costs increase for everything from synthetic rubber and nitrile used in manufacturing condoms to packaging materials and lubricants such as aluminium foils and silicone oil.
Most of the raw materials are shipped through the vital Strait of Hormuz, a bottleneck area between the Arabian Peninsula and the Persian Gulf.
The war is also affecting energy and food prices. Earlier this month, it was revealed that the average UK household could spend more than £340 more each year because of the war’s impact.
Analysis by the Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) set out two possible scenarios for the conflict in the Middle East, and how they would impact supermarket prices back in the UK.
The condom company is facing supply chain issues (Picture: AFP)
Even though both assumed the disruption would be ‘relatively short-lived’ – possibly with a ceasefire secured and energy production freed up – neither was good news for inflation.
In the event of a ‘moderate energy price shock’, average food inflation would hit 4.8% – but an ‘intense energy price shock’ could kick it up to 6.4%.
For an average UK household with an annual grocery bill of £5,283, the latter scenario would mean an increase of £338 a year.
Joe Nellis, an economic advisor at accountants MHA, said: ‘For shoppers, this means tougher decisions each week: switching to cheaper alternatives, cutting back on non-essentials, or simply buying less.
‘Everyday items — from bread to fresh produce — are particularly exposed to rising input costs, meaning price increases can appear quickly on supermarket shelves.’
Clothes shop Next has also warned its prices are likely to increase as a direct result of the war on Iran, due to the rising costs of fuel and air freight.
The retailer said: ‘Beyond the next three months, if we see these costs persist, then we will begin to pass costs through as higher pricing – but for today that remains a contingency not a plan.’
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NATO intercepts Russian bombers and jets over the Baltic Sea
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NATO intercepts Russian bombers and jets over the Baltic Sea
Intercepted Aircraft
NATO intercepted Russian strategic bombers and fighter jets over the Baltic Sea, involving French Rafale fighters deployed as part of a NATO air-policing effort.
NATO intercepted Russian strategic bombers and fighter jets over the Baltic Sea, involving French Rafale fighters deployed as part of a NATO air-policing effort.
Operational Scale
NATO routinely intercepts Russian aircraft, with approximately 300 interceptions annually in northern Europe, illustrating the ongoing intensity of military activity in the region.
NATO routinely intercepts Russian aircraft, with approximately 300 interceptions annually in northern Europe, illustrating the ongoing intensity of military activity in the region.
Official Statement
NATO stated that it routinely scrambles fighter aircraft to intercept Russian warplanes that fail to communicate with air traffic controllers or file a flight plan.
NATO stated that it routinely scrambles fighter aircraft to intercept Russian warplanes that fail to communicate with air traffic controllers or file a flight plan.
Key developments
NATO intercepted Russian strategic bombers and fighter jets over the Baltic Sea on Monday, reinforcing the military alliance’s presence on its eastern flank amid ongoing tensions.
French Rafale fighters from Lithuania joined jets from Sweden, Finland, Poland, Denmark, and Romania in monitoring the Russian aircraft, which included two Tu-22M3 bombers and ten escort fighters.
NATO intercepts Russian military aircraft flying over the Baltic Sea, French team says
Published on •Updated
NATO intercepted Russian strategic bombers and fighter jets that flew over the Baltic Sea on Monday, a muscular display of air power on the alliance’s eastern flank away from the spotlight on the Middle East.
French Rafale fighters were deployed from a Lithuanian air base where they are stationed as part of a decades-long NATO air-policing effort.
The fighters armed with air-to-air missiles joined jets from Sweden, Finland, Poland, Denmark and Romania. They all took to the skies to inspect and keep watch on the Russian flight, the French detachment said.
The Russian mission included two supersonic Tu-22M3s, as well as about 10 fighters, both SU-30s and SU-35s, that took turns escorting the larger strategic bombers, according to the statement.
The Russian Defence Ministry said the long-range bombers’ flight was scheduled and occurred in airspace over the neutral waters of the Baltic Sea. The flight took more than four hours, the ministry said on Telegram on Monday.
“At certain stages of the route, the long-range bombers were accompanied by fighters of foreign states,” the ministry said.
“Crews of long-range aviation regularly conduct flights over the neutral waters of the Arctic, the North Atlantic, the Pacific Ocean, as well as the Baltic and Black Seas. All flights of Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft are carried out in strict compliance with international rules for the use of airspace.”
The ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Tuesday. It often reports flights by its strategic bombers over the Baltic Sea, including in January when NATO jets also flew up to meet them and at least four times last year.
NATO’s Allied Air Command also did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Tuesday.
The military alliance routinely scrambles fighter aircraft to intercept Russian warplanes that approach or fly near NATO airspace. NATO says the Russian planes it intercepts often fail to use their transponders and don’t communicate with air traffic controllers or file a flight plan. NATO jets are sent up to identify them.
Many of the Russian flights that NATO monitors with its Baltic air policing mission, in place since Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia joined the alliance in 2004, are to and from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
Even before the war in Ukraine, NATO was intercepting Russian planes around 300 times each year, mostly over waters around northern Europe.
Lithuania’s defence ministry said NATO jets were scrambled four times between 13-19 April to intercept Russian aircraft that violated flight rules that included turning off flight transponders and flying without a flight plan.
Additional sources • AP
‘Schools may inspect pencil cases or use scanners to enforce phone ban’ | News UK
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Get you up to speed: ‘Schools may inspect pencil cases or use scanners to enforce phone ban’ | News UK
MOBILE PHONE BAN
Ministers will amend the children’s wellbeing and schools bill in the House of Lords to make the ban on mobile phones in schools statutory.
Ministers will amend the children’s wellbeing and schools bill in the House of Lords to make the ban on mobile phones in schools statutory.
POLICY CHANGE
Conservative shadow education secretary Laura Trott described the government’s upcoming amendment to the children’s wellbeing and schools bill as “fantastic news” for stakeholders nationally.
Conservative shadow education secretary Laura Trott described the government’s upcoming amendment to the children’s wellbeing and schools bill as “fantastic news” for stakeholders nationally.
MOBILE PHONE BAN
Headteachers express concerns over the enforceability of the UK government’s upcoming law banning mobile phones in secondary schools, set for amendment in the House of Lords.
Headteachers express concerns over the enforceability of the UK government’s upcoming law banning mobile phones in secondary schools, set for amendment in the House of Lords.
What we know so far
Headteachers are expressing concern over the government’s decision to mandate a ban on mobile phones in schools, citing challenges in enforcement, particularly in secondary education. The move aims to curb the use of devices deemed ‘addictive’ and ‘distracting’ in classrooms.
While many educators welcome the ban, asserting it addresses issues of socialisation and focus, they warn that policing the restriction among older pupils may necessitate impractical measures, such as searching personal belongings. Alasdair Black, headteacher at Moat House Primary School, remarked that the ban is ‘long overdue’ but also indicated reliance on students’ integrity to enforce it.
The government plans to amend the children’s wellbeing and schools bill in the House of Lords to formalise existing guidelines concerning mobile phone usage. A Department for Education spokesperson reiterated that ‘mobile phones have no place in schools’, asserting that the amendment will provide legal weight to practices already followed by many institutions.
Despite mixed views among school leaders, typical challenges include students accessing devices during school hours and issues related to social media. While some headteachers cite a lack of enforcement problems at the primary level, secondary educators remain sceptical about the practicality of the ban.
Read in full
‘Schools will need to search pencil cases or use airport scanners to enforce phone ban’ | News UK
Headteachers have warned secondary schools might struggle to ban ‘addictive’ and ‘distracting’ mobile phones from their classrooms.
Principles have weighed in on the government’s decision to make it law that smartphones should be banned in schools.
The senior teachers welcomed the move to kick out the ‘damaging’ devices, which they say are hurting their abilities to socialise and focus.
But some fear it will be difficult to enforce on older children unless they turn to ‘impractical’ searches or scans of students belongings.
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Ministers had previously argued that there was no need for a ban to be a legal requirement as a large number of schools had already prohibited the devices.
Now they will amend the children’s wellbeing and schools bill in the House of Lords to make existing guidance statutory.
Alasdair Black, headteacher at Moat House Primary School in Coventry, said the change of mind was ‘long overdue’ and would help persuade parents and pupils to respect these bans.
His school only allows Year 5 and Year 6 to bring in phones and those devices must still be handed in at the start of the school day and returned at home time.
Mr Black, who is on the national executive of the National Association of Head Teachers (NAHT), told WTX: ‘We are totally reliant on children’s honesty and there have been a few occasions when children have not handed in their phones.’
He says that most of the time kids that age ‘grass’ on their fellow classmates, but secondary schools will struggle a lot more to police mobile phone use.
The teacher explained the drastic measures that would be needed: ‘The only way to guarantee that they don’t get into schools would be to search children’s pencil cases, bags and coats as they enter the building in the morning, which is not practical.
‘Another way to check could be to use some form of scanner, like they have at courts and airports, but I don’t think that schools are likely to install these.’
Mustafaa Malik, head of Harlow Green Community Primary School in Gateshead, agreed the ban would be hard to ‘police’ in secondary schools.
The Gateshead Headteachers Association chair said: ‘I do not understand what stops a pupil from handing a phone in when they have another phone? Why would that not happen?
‘Then there are smart watches – there are a lot of nuances that need to be clarified.’
His school also lets Year 5 and Year 6 children come to school with phones, but they are locked up in the office during the school day.
As many as 99.8 per cent of primary schools and 90 per cent of secondary schools already restrict or limit the use of phones during the school day, research from the children’s commissioner has shown.
Although Mr Malik does not face problems with children bringing in phones, he said they ‘have the issue of children accessing them at too young an age’.
The consequences of exposure to devices and social media at too young an age has been devastating.
The headteacher said: ‘As school leaders, we worry about the future of society.
‘Phones have already impacted their ability to focus and their brain development.
‘Many are struggling to play with groups of other children. They want to be in front a screen all the time.
‘Older children say they would rather be at home on their computer.’
It is a similar picture for Mr Black, who said the consequences of mobile phone use causes ‘regular issues’ even if they are banned during the school day.
The Coventry head said: ‘The most common problems are linked to arguments and bullying on social media apps.
‘We also have issues with children filming fights outside of school and children using AI to manipulate images of other children then sharing these.’
He said he could not see how banning phones would have ‘any impact’ on these problems.
More optimistic about a ban is Jonathan Kirkham, the headteacher at Weeke Primary School in Winchester.
He said he was ‘really really pleased’ with the government’s move.
‘You would not allow a child to come into school with drugs or a bottle of vodka,’ Mr Kirkham added, alluding to the harms phones can cause.
His school went ‘smartphone-free’ in September, which has brought with a ‘really positive outcome already’.
In that time, teachers have only had to confiscate two phones that children did not hand in at the beginning of the school day, and that he has been able to educate any concerned parents to get on board with the ban.
Mr Kirkham said he has seen evidence that similar bans can be successfully installed in secondary schools.
Despite this, he is all too aware of how prevelant phone use is among young people.
‘Four-year-olds are playing Grand Theft Auto across the whole country,’ he said in reference to the game only suitable for older teenagers.
‘The level at which teenagers are anxious and are really struggling with dealing with the pressures around exams – it is not a coincidence that has increased. It is significantly linked to technology.’
Last week, MPs rejected calls to ban social media for under-16s for a second time after minsters said a ban was premature.
The government is holding a consultation on the issue and MPs instead voted to give ministers powers to bring in their own rules.
A Department for Education spokesperson said: ‘We have been consistently clear that mobile phones have no place in schools, and the majority already prohibit them. This amendment makes existing guidance statutory, giving legal force to what schools are already doing in practice.’
Conservative shadow education secretary Laura Trott said the amendment, which is due to be tabled in the coming days, was ‘fantastic news for headteachers, parents and pupils across the country’.
Japan raises mega-quake warning level following 7.7 magnitude earthquake
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Get you up to speed: Japan raises mega-quake warning level following 7.7 magnitude earthquake
Japan experienced a 7.7 magnitude earthquake off its northeastern coast, resulting in 10ft tsunami waves hitting Iwate prefecture and Hokkaido. Experts have increased the probability of a follow-up mega-quake from 0.1% to 1%.
Professor Richard Walker from the University of Oxford warned that although mega-quakes are rare, they can be significantly damaging, capable of producing destructive tsunami waves. According to the University of Tokyo, Japan experiences an average of three earthquakes daily due to its location on the Ring of Fire fault lines.
Experts have raised the probability of a follow-up mega-quake in Japan from 0.1% to 1%, indicating a tenfold increase in risk. The University of Tokyo reports that Japan remains highly vulnerable to seismic activity, experiencing an average of three earthquakes daily.
How powerful is a ‘mega-quake’ and could one ever happen in the UK? | News World
Mega-quakes can happen with next to no warning (Picture: Getty Images AsiaPac)
Fears of a catastrophic ‘mega-quake’ are mounting after Japan was rocked by a 7.7 magnitude tremor.
The earthquake, off the northeastern coast, sent shockwaves felt hundreds of miles away in Tokyo.
Tsunami alerts flashed on phones as 10ft waves hit the Iwate prefecture and Hokkaido.
Social media footage captured the moment power lines swayed and kitchenware rattled inside people’s homes.
Experts have now raised the probability of a follow-up mega-quake from 0.1% to 1% – a tenfold increase in the typical risk level.
What is a mega-quake?
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A mega-quake is defined as a massive tremor with a magnitude higher than eight. The strongest ever recorded was a 9.5 which struck Chile in 1960.
Richard Walker, professor of tectonics at the University of Oxford, warned these events are uniquely destructive.
He told WTX: ‘Although these really large earthquakes are rare, they can be very damaging as they produce strong shaking and because they have the potential to produce tsunami waves that can inundate coastal regions, including places far away from the earthquake itself.’
Scientists are now reviewing historical data, noting a similar pattern of quakes that led up to the magnitude 9.1 that struck in March 2011.
That disaster triggered a tsunami that killed 19,000 people and destroyed the Fukushima nuclear power plant.
Professor Walker said the current warning is essential for ‘careful messaging and education on how to prepare and react’.
Japan remains highly vulnerable because it sits on the Ring of Fire fault lines and has an average of three earthquakes a day, according to the University of Tokyo.
Could Britain ever face one?
In short, the UK remains safely shielded from such extreme seismic activity.
The country sits in the middle of the Eurasian tectonic plate, far from deep ocean trenches.
The tremors that do shake the British Isles tend to be clustered around the Midlands Microcraton – a triangle of rock stretching from the Peak District to Swansea and London.
The British Geological Survey says there are around 300 a year, but only 30 are felt.
A ‘major’ UK quake in 2023 measured just 4.2, which is a fraction of the strength when compared to Japan’s standards.
An earthquake on March 15, 2011, was one of Japan’s deadliest (Picture: Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Professor Walker reassured us saying: ‘The UK is far, far, away from the nearest deep ocean trench, with prominent global examples being those in the Caribbean, offshore western South America and Alaska, and along the eastern margin of Asia (including Japan).’
For further reassurance, the last major geological upheavals in the UK happened tens of millions of years ago, when volcanic activity formed landmarks such as Giant’s Causeway and the Isle of Skye.
The closest Britain has come to a powerful earthquake in modern times was the Dogger Bank earthquake of 1931.
Measuring 6.1 in magnitude, it caused widespread damage and was linked to the death of a woman in Hull who suffered a fatal heart attack during the tremor.
What is a mega-quake?
The strength of earthquakes is measured on a scale of magnitude. The higher the number on the scale, the more powerful the quake.
Mega-quakes are far larger and more destructive earthquakes defined as those with a magnitude of more than eight.
The largest was in 1960, when a magnitude 9.5 earthquake flattened a 1,000-mile-long stretch of Chile.
How to prepare for an earthquake – and what to do when one happens
The Earthquake Country Alliance, an earthquake coordination organisation, recommends that people secure items in their home, such as bookcases, that could easily topple over.
The same goes for fragile items like TVs or heavy pieces like a hot water heater.
Official guidance in Japan recommends people keep their footwear by their bed and be ready to evacuate at any time, even during the night.
Keep an emergency kit of basic supplies – ID, money, water and medication- and listen to official broadcasts on the radio and internet for updates.
‘Stay away from fragile block walls,’ it adds. ‘Be ready for collapses caused by earthquakes.’
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US-Iran Tensions Escalate Ahead of Ceasefire Deadline Amid Negotiation Stalemate
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Get you up to speed: US-Iran Tensions Escalate Ahead of Ceasefire Deadline Amid Negotiation Stalemate
US Vice President JD Vance is set to lead a team of negotiators in Islamabad on Tuesday for talks with Iran, although Tehran has not confirmed its participation. The two-week ceasefire, announced by US President Donald Trump on April 7, is scheduled to expire on Wednesday at 8pm Washington, DC time.
United States Vice President JD Vance is set to lead a negotiation team in Islamabad on Tuesday aimed at resolving the conflict with Iran, according to reports. However, Tehran has not confirmed its participation in the talks, and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has indicated that negotiations are not acceptable under current conditions, labelling US demands as overly demanding.
Vice President JD Vance will lead a US negotiating team in Islamabad on Tuesday, despite Iran’s lack of confirmation regarding its participation. The fragile two-week ceasefire, announced by US President Donald Trump, is set to expire on Wednesday at 8pm Washington time, with ongoing tensions and no clarity on a potential extension.
Iran-US war: Four scenarios for what’s next as talks stumble
Israel is doing its best to prevent the US and Iran from reaching a deal. However, between an expiring ceasefire and a possible deal lies a range of ways in which the war could proceed, but Trump needs to ignore the Israeli pressure, for any deal to succeed, analysts say
Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to lead a team of United States negotiators in Islamabad on Tuesday for talks with Iran aimed at ending their war, even though Tehran is yet to confirm its participation in this latest round of negotiations.
Meanwhile, a fragile two-week ceasefire is poised to expire on Wednesday with no clarity on whether it will be extended amid a spike in tensions over the past two days.
The first round of US-Iran talks in Islamabad on April 11 ended without a breakthrough. Since then, the US has imposed a naval blockade on all Iran-linked ships trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has fired at ships trying to transit through the vital shipping route. And early on Monday, the US shot at and then seized an Iranian vessel trying to pass through the narrow waterway.
Tehran called the ship’s seizure “piracy” and has threatened retribution. It has refused to join talks under the shadow of threats. Trump has revived his warning that he would order the US military to blow up all bridges and power plants in Iran if it does not accept a deal on US terms.
Amid this uncertainty over the future of the talks and the truce, we break down the latest from both sides and four potential scenarios that could play out in the next few days:
What’s the latest from both sides?
Both the US and Iran have been exchanging threats as the ceasefire is due to expire in the coming hours.
The two-week ceasefire, announced by US President Donald Trump on April 7, should expire at 8pm Washington, DC, time on Tuesday (midnight GMT, 3:30am in Tehran and 5am in Islamabad on Wednesday). However, Trump has in recent comments indicated that he has already moved the deadline back by a day.
While Islamabad continues with its preparations to host multiday talks, there has been no confirmation yet from Iranian officials about whether they will attend.
The US president said he feels confident Iran will negotiate or it will “see problems like they’ve never seen before”.
Trump confirmed in a Truth Social post that the US delegation is planning to visit Islamabad on Tuesday. While accusing Iran of violating the ceasefire by firing at vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump added: “We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!”
Meanwhile, Iran maintained there will be no negotiations under the shadow of threats.
Mohammad Reza Mohseni Sani, who sits on the Iranian parliament’s National Security Commission, cast further doubt on the prospects of talks with the US.
He said in comments carried by Iran’s Mehr news agency that “negotiations are not acceptable” in “the current situation” accusing the US of being “overly demanding” and pursuing ulterior objectives for domestic benefit.
“Given the current conditions, recent aggressions and the history we have with the United States in previous negotiations, the next round of talks is, God willing, off the table,” he said.
Ali Vaez, the Iran project director for the International Crisis Group think tank, told Al Jazeera that the key hurdle before any second round of talks was “whether the US is willing to ease pressure enough to make diplomacy credible and whether Iran is willing to curb its leverage enough to keep talks alive”.
Scenario 1: Talks happen and achieve a temporary deal
Pakistan has been aiming to get the US and Iran to agree to multiple days of negotiations, sources close to the mediation efforts told Al Jazeera.
For the US, Vance is expected to be joined by Trump’s envoy and fellow real estate developer Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, the same team that participated in the first round of talks. If the Iranians come, the parliament’s speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, is again expected to lead their delegation, which will also include Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
Mediators in Islamabad are aiming to reach a “memorandum of understanding” between the US and Iran to buy time to achieve a final deal and extend the ceasefire.
“Success would not be a final deal. It would be an interim understanding that extends talks, stabilises the ceasefire and creates a framework for trading nuclear steps for sanctions relief,” Vaez said.
However, glaring differences exist in the demands and expectations from both sides, including over Tehran’s nuclear programme, control of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions on Iran and its frozen assets.
“If the two sides do not change their stances, there cannot be a deal in Islamabad,” said Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, an associate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the Chatham House think tank.
Scenario 2: Talks end without a breakthrough but with a ceasefire extension
For there to be any meaningful progress in the talks, “there needs to be compromises on both sides because at the moment there is too much of a gap to reach an agreement,” Tabrizi told Al Jazeera.
“Unless that changes, it’s unlikely that we will see a deal,” she said.
Trump has doubled down in recent days on his insistence that Iran stop all uranium enrichment and hand over its current stockpile of enriched uranium. Iran has rejected those demands.
“The US is not learning its lessons from experience,” Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday. “And this will never lead to good results.”
Still, Tabrizi said, even in the absence of a breakthrough in a second round of talks, the two sides may agree to “some sort of temporary extension of the ceasefire”, which would give diplomacy another chance.
Scenario 3: No talks but the ceasefire is extended
Trump told Bloomberg News on Monday that he considers the ceasefire over “Wednesday evening Washington time” and said it was “highly unlikely” that he would extend it if no deal is reached.
Still, a last-minute post on his Truth Social platform extending the ceasefire would not necessarily be surprising, analysts said – even if Iran refuses to show up to the talks in Islamabad.
“It [would be] a fragile pause, not a durable ceasefire,” Vaez said. “As long as maritime pressure and mutual accusations continue, the risk of miscalculation remains very high.”
“Without a diplomatic framework, it would be buying time, not building stability,” he added.
Tabrizi agreed. Already, though, the war has fundamentally changed the US-Iran equation, she said.
“President Trump is arguing that regime change has happened because the figures that they are dealing with are different,” Tabrizi said. “Iran probably doesn’t seem to see the US as an existential threat like before the fighting started.”
Scenario 4: Talks fail, and the ceasefire expires
Trump’s repeated threats to restart the bombing of Iran in the absence of a deal also open up a fourth scenario: If Iranian negotiators do not travel to Islamabad for the talks, that threat will be tested.
“Then lots of bombs start going off,” Trump said to PBS News on Monday when asked about what follows if the ceasefire expires. Trump added that Iran was “supposed to be there” for the negotiations. “We’ll see whether or not it’s there. If they’re not there, that’s fine too,” he said.
Ghalibaf said on Tuesday that Trump “seeks to turn this negotiating table, in his own imagination, into a table of surrender or to justify renewed warmongering”.
“We have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield,” he added, suggesting that Tehran was prepared militarily for a resumption of the fighting.
But if the ceasefire collapses, “the next round is likely to get very ugly very quickly,” Vaez warned. “The US will likely target critical infrastructure in Iran, which in turn will torch the rest of the region.”
Macron meets Lebanese PM Salam amid rising tensions in Lebanon’s border area
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Macron meets Lebanese PM Salam amid rising tensions in Lebanon’s border area
Diplomatic Meeting
Emmanuel Macron will host Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam on Tuesday evening, as new talks between Israel and Lebanon are scheduled for Thursday in Washington.
Emmanuel Macron will host Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam on Tuesday evening, as new talks between Israel and Lebanon are scheduled for Thursday in Washington.
UNIFIL Withdrawal
UNIFIL’s impending withdrawal raises critical questions about future security arrangements between Lebanon and Israel, impacting regional stability after decades of conflict since 1948.
UNIFIL’s impending withdrawal raises critical questions about future security arrangements between Lebanon and Israel, impacting regional stability after decades of conflict since 1948.
Macron’s Accusation
“Hezbollah did indeed target our soldiers (…) They targeted them because they were carrying out their mission,” said Emmanuel Macron at a press conference in Poland.
“Hezbollah did indeed target our soldiers (…) They targeted them because they were carrying out their mission,” said Emmanuel Macron at a press conference in Poland.
Key developments
Emmanuel Macron will host Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam as new talks between Israel and Lebanon are set for Thursday in Washington. France aims to reaffirm support for Lebanon’s sovereignty.
The death of a French soldier in an ambush has heightened tensions. Macron accused Hezbollah of targeting UN peacekeepers and confirmed that Lebanon has condemned the attack and will pursue justice.
As UNIFIL prepares for potential withdrawal at the year’s end, discussions with European nations regarding a future international force to support Lebanon are ongoing, although France’s diplomatic influence appears diminished.
France’s president to welcome Lebanon’s PM amid fragile ceasefire and tensions with Israel
Emmanuel Macron will host Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam on Tuesday evening, as new talks between Israel and Lebanon are expected to take place in Washington on Thursday.
The visit comes as the Élysée Palace said France intends to”reaffirm its commitment to the strict respect of the ceasefire, France’s support for Lebanon’s territorial integrity and the steps taken by the Lebanese state to fully guarantee its sovereignty and arms monopoly.”
This diplomatic sequence is unfolding in a particularly tense atmosphere following the death on Saturday of a French soldier serving with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).
All 15 members of the UN Security Council condemned the attack and called for those responsible”to be brought to justice without delay.”The French President and the UN blame the Iran-backed militant group, Hezbollah.
On Monday, Macron accused the group of killing Staff Sergeant Florian Montorio in an ambush targeting UN peacekeepers on Saturday, while insisting the soldier had not been targeted because he was a French citizen.
“Hezbollah did indeed target our soldiers (…) They didn’t target them because they were French. They targeted them because they were carrying out their mission_,”_ Macron said at a press conference in Poland.
Macron also said that “the Lebanese authorities have condemned this attack and will take the necessary steps to arrest those responsible and ensure that they are punished.”
The future of the UN’s security mission to southern Lebanon is also in question.
The UNIFIL mission is due to start withdrawing its peacekeepers at the end of the year.
This prospect raises a central question: who will ensure the future security in the border area between Lebanon and Israel, two countries that have been at war since 1948?
Deployed since 1978, UNIFIL’s role has been to help restore peace and support the Lebanese state authority in the south of the country.
Shortly before the meeting between Macron and Salam, an Elysée Palace adviser told journalists, including EU News**,** that discussions were underway with European countries already involved in the UN mission, including Spain, Italy and Germany.
“These actors are now making a very direct contribution to the discussions on what an international force to support the Lebanese government might look like,” he said, adding that this did not necessarily mean that these countries would be involved in Lebanon once the UN withdrew.
But this strategic reflection comes at a time when France’s diplomatic position seems to have weakened.
Despite Paris‘ interest in playing a mediating role in the new direct talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington, Israeli officials have insisted that France is not involved in the negotiations.
The Israeli ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, said last week that officials do “not want the French anywhere near these negotiations.”
“We like to keep the French as far away as possible from pretty much everything, but particularly when it comes to peace negotiations,” he continued.
Among Israel’s many grievances against France are the exclusion of a dozen Israeli defence companies from the Eurosatory 2024 exhibition in Paris and the Paris Air Show 2025, as well as France’s leading role in recognising Palestinian statehood.
France’s exclusion is all the more striking given the country’s longstanding historic ties with Lebanon, inherited from the French mandate after World War I.
Paris also helped facilitate the indirect talks that led to the 2024 ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.
At the same time, the conflict in the Middle East is also weighing on France’s own budget.
On Tuesday, the government is due to unveil new spending cuts to offset the economic impact of the war, estimated at between €4-6 billion for France.
Announcements are expected later on Tuesday. In particular, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is due to speak on fuel subsidies as prices skyrocket, with the possibility of extending measures already in place.
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