Editorial 03.12.24
Several political stories dominate the bloc’s news today. The ongoing crisis facing the French government leads most websites. France is grappling with a mounting fiscal crisis, with government debt levels and budgetary constraints pushing the country into uncharted territory. PM Michel Barnier’s choice to force through the budget was always going to be an issue, and amid the turmoil far-right leader Marine Le Pen has emerged as a key figure capable of stabilising the political landscape.
France’s financial struggles carry significant implications for the EU. France’s inability to adhere to fiscal targets undermines broader EU economic stability.
The results of Ireland’s snap general election are expected to be tight as counting continues and no clear winner has emerged.
Georgia is in its fourth night of protesting as the country finds itself at a crossroads. The government’s push for a “Brexit-like” mandate clashes with growing demands from a minority faction advocating for closer ties with the European Union.
‘France on verge of economic and political meltdown’
French MPs to hold no-confidence vote on Wednesday
French legislators are expected to hold a vote of no confidence against the government of French Prime Minister Michel Barnier on Wednesday afternoon, parliamentary sources said on Tuesday.
A no-confidence motion tabled by the left-wing alliance is likely to be adopted after the far-right National Rally (RN) said it would back it. The debate is set to begin at 4pm Paris time on Wednesday.
French PM forces social security budget bill without a vote
France’s Prime Minister Michel Barnier faced an abrupt end to his premiership on Monday, December 2, after opposition parties said they would back a no-confidence motion against his government after only three months in power.
Certain that the Assemblée Nationale would deny him a majority backing the government’s social security financing plan for next year, Barnier forced through the bill without a vote, using article 49.3 of the French constitution.
Barnier invokes Article 49.3 – what happens now?
French PM Michel Barnier has invoked Article 49.3 to pass budget measures without parliamentary approval, risking a no-confidence vote. Opposition, led by Marine Le Pen, demanded the indexation of pensions to inflation. Markets react with bond spreads widening and CAC 40 falling.
Is France heading for an economic storm?
When Prime Minister Michel Barnier unveiled his deficit-reduction plan in October, promising to bring that figure down to 3% of GDP in 2029, he seemed to hope he’d be able to steer the French economy into calmer waters. The country’s prognosis for this year’s public deficit had just jumped from around 5% to over 6% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). A rise that remains unexplained until today. But an imminent no-confidence vote in parliament could now upend Barnier’s hopes — and unleash an economic storm.
French far right says government spurned budget talks, piling pressure on Barnier
France’s far right National Rally (RN) leaders said on Sunday that the government had rebuffed its calls for more budget concessions, raising the chances of a no confidence vote in the coming days that could topple Prime Minister Michel Barnier.
‘Irish general election too close to call’
Majority of seats called in Ireland’s general election but tough coalition talks lie ahead
The results of the election mean Ireland has partly bucked the global trend of incumbents being rejected by disgruntled voters after years of pandemic measures, international instability and cost-of-living pressures. Ireland’s two dominant centre-right parties look likely to form the country’s next government as the final results from a fractured national election trickle in.
Sinn Féin favourite for second place in Republic’s general election
SINN Féin were favourites to secure second place in the Republic’s general election on Sunday night, but with a Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil coalition still remaining the most likely next government. By around 7pm, 102 of the 174 seats had been filled with Fianna Fáil on 27 with a first preference share of 21.9%, Fine Gael on 24 seats and 20.8% first preferences and Sinn Féin on 24 seats and 19%.
Labour and the Social Democrats both had six seats while Independent Ireland had three.
‘Romania protests continue’
Romania comes to terms with new political reality despite victory of pro-European forces
The leftist Social Democrat party is set to win Romania’s parliamentary elections, with far-right populists making significant gains.
As Romania comes to terms with the new political reality that the country has changed, the calculations and negotiations are under way for government coalition scenarios following the victory of the pro-Western centrist forces and the rise of the far-right parties in Sunday’s parliamentary elections.
Georgia: Germany still open to Tbilisi EU membership
The German government said on Monday that it still supported Georgia’s bid for European Union membership as protests have flared in the capital Tbilisi over the government’s plans to shelve accession talks.
Georgia has seen a wave of protests since the governing Georgian Dream party claimed victory in October elections that the pro-European opposition said were fraudulent.
