Washington — The Senate midterm race in deep-red Mississippi leans toward Democrat Scott Colom, who has mounted a surprisingly competitive challenge against incumbent GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. 

As of Tuesday evening, Colom was leading Hyde-Smith by just under 3,000 votes, with 98% of the vote in, according to WTX US News projections. At one point on the morning after the election, a mere few dozen votes separated the candidates, a stunningly close result in the Magnolia State.   

The state’s top election official, Secretary of State Michael Watson, said in a post on X Monday that seven more counties of the state’s 82 counties still needed to upload their unofficial results, with certified results due from all the counties by Friday. He also said 2,732 absentee mail ballots were still out, and the deadline for election officials to receive them would be Tuesday, Nov. 10. 

Hyde-Smith, asked by WTX US News’ Caitlin Huey-Burns what she could have done differently during the campaign to make it less competitive, responded, “I think we worked very hard and had a very good campaign.”

Hyde-Smith, 67, has been in the Senate since 2018 and is seeking reelection. But Colom, a district attorney, launched a formidable challenge in a state President Trump won by 20 points in 2024. Mississippi hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1982.   

Democrats saw a slew of wins in Senate races in the midterms, including in states that President Trump won by double digits in the 2024 elections. Democrats have secured enough seats to take control of the chamber in the new year. If Colom manages to pull off a victory, he would add to their majority. 

Colom, 43, is a seventh-generation Mississippian who campaigned on cost-of-living and healthcare issues. Democrats began investing in the race in recent weeks, seeing an opportunity for a pickup. But the possible outcome still appeared exceedingly unlikely heading into Election Day.

Speaking to supporters in the wee hours after election night, Colom said, “The results are all trending in our direction.”

“We are trending in counties that people thought we had no chance to compete in,” Colom said. “And we’re winning them.”

Mississippi Secretary of State Michael Watson said Friday there are approximately 3,300 outstanding mail ballots. The state is also processing an unknown number of affidavit ballots, or provisional ballots, from voters whose eligibility needs to be confirmed. Mail ballots must be received within five business days, while affidavit ballots must be processed within the 10-day window that counties have to certify results, which ends Nov. 13.

Mississippi does not allow recounts, so a winner will be decided based on a plurality of votes. 

Both parties are keeping a close eye on the process. WTX US News has confirmed the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has deployed lawyers and resources to the state to monitor the count.

“I’m confident that ultimately Mississippi has decided to go in a new direction,” Colom told reporters after greeting campaign volunteers Thursday morning in Jackson.  

The National Republican Senatorial Committee and Hyde-Smith campaign filed a request for all counties to separate and preserve all affidavit ballots. The Colom campaign called the move a “desperate stunt.” His counsel also sent a new letter to Mississippi’s 82 counties asking them to respect election procedures. 

Hyde-Smith predicted that she will win reelection, posting on X: “We believe thousands of votes remain to be counted from dozens of Republican counties, and we are confident those votes will reinforce her path to victory.”

At a news conference Thursday, Mississippi Republican Party Chair Mike Hurst insisted the election “is far from being over” and noted the state party has attorneys and observers throughout the state to ensure all legally cast ballots are counted.

Colom and Hyde-Smith have faced off before.  

Then-President Joe Biden nominated Colom for a federal judgeship in the Northern District of Mississippi, but Hyde-Smith declined to back his nomination in April 2023, citing questions about Colom’s stance on transgender issues and other concerns. Colom won the support of Mississippi’s other Republican senator, Roger Wicker. 

Under the Senate’s “blue slip” tradition, the Senate Judiciary Committee generally does not move forward with federal district court nominees unless the senators who represent the judicial district sign off — preventing Colom from being confirmed to a lifetime judicial appointment. About two and a half years later, Colom launched his campaign for Senate.

Colom told CNN that “not having a federal judgeship is not a motivating factor for me at all” in his Senate campaign, saying he forgives Hyde-Smith.

The Mississippi contest is one of two still-unresolved Senate races. Alaska’s Senate race between GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola is also outstanding, leaving the size of Democrats’ majority up in the air.