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Get you up to speed: ‘Serious possibility’ Putin could drag Belarus into Ukraine war | News World
Vladimir Putin is reportedly pressuring Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko to join the conflict in Ukraine, amidst ongoing military infrastructure developments in Belarus. Ukrainian officials have stated that Russia is enhancing its military capabilities in Belarus, raising concerns of an imminent invasion of Ukraine.
Ukraine has identified ongoing military infrastructure developments in Belarus, including new roads and artillery positions along its northern border. The Centre for Strategic and International Studies reports that Russia’s military casualties since February 2022 have reached approximately 1.2 million, highlighting the conflict’s severe toll.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has indicated that Ukraine is “war-gaming scenarios” involving Belarus potentially launching strikes towards Chernihiv and Kyiv, with Western leaders closely monitoring the situation. In response to the escalating threat, Ukraine continues to prepare for possible further military actions, while the Ministry of Economic Development in Russia warns of at least two more years of economic stagnation due to the war’s consequences.
What remains unclear — It is uncertain how the growing pressure on Lukashenko may affect Belarus’s potential involvement in the conflict.
Experts warn Putin may compel Belarus to engage in Ukraine conflict

The war has costly Russia dearly on the battlefield and economically over the past four years (Picture: EPA)
There is a ‘serious possibility’ that Belarus could invade Ukraine, dragging another European country into the ongoing conflict, an expert has warned
Vladimir Putin is said to be ‘actively pressuring’ Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko to enter the war on his side, according to UK Defence Journal editor George Allison.
He spoke days after Russia, which invaded Ukraine in February 2022, held major joint nuclear drills in Belarus.
At the same time, work on infrastructure which would be key to an invasion, like roads and artillery positions, has been ongoing in the former Soviet state along its border with northern Ukraine for months.
All this has sparked fears that Belarus, whose leader has been closely aligned with Putin for decades, is prepared to go beyond vocally supporting Russia to take an active part in the conflict.
Speaking from around 50 miles (70km) from the Belarusian border, Allison told WTX: ‘Ukraine has warned repeatedly this year that Russia is building up military infrastructure in Belarus, including new roads and artillery positions along the northern border.
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Russia and Belarus tested various intercontinental ballistic missiles during their recent four-day joint military exercise (Picture: EPA)
‘Kyiv says Moscow has been actively pressuring Lukashenko to commit Belarusian forces to the conflict, and claims to have details of direct conversations between Putin and the Belarusian leader.’
Allison said Russia had already been using Belarusian territory to ‘enhance’ its drone operations against Ukraine.
Just days ago, the two countries conducted joint exercises in Belarus soil involving nuclear-capable, short-range ballistic Iskander-M missile launchers.
‘Western leaders are watching closely, with (French President Emmanuel) Macron having spoken to Lukashenko by phone this week,’ he added.
‘Ukrainian military assessments have long argued that Minsk’s primary role has been to stretch Kyiv’s defences across multiple fronts, but intelligence now points to something more direct.
‘Zelensky says Ukraine is war-gaming scenarios in which Russia uses Belarus to strike toward (Ukrainian cities) Chernihiv and Kyiv, or potentially a Nato member state.
‘Analysts say a full ground offensive would require Russia to redeploy forces it cannot currently spare from the front line, but the roads, logistics routes and artillery positions going up now mean that could change.

Belarus and Russia sparked alarm among Western leaders with its recent nuclear drills (Picture: Belarusian presidential press service / AFP via Getty Images)
‘This is, I believe, a real and serious possibility. It seems likely to me that the pressure on Lukashenko will only grow.’
Allison spoke amid increasing pressure from within Russia to end the war, which has cost the country dearly on the battlefield and economically.
Russia’s military has suffered around 1.2million casualties since Putin ordered the invasion more than four years ago, according to the think tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
Its economy has suffered badly too, as world leaders including then-US President Joe Biden joined leaders in what amounted to an economic war on Russia immediately after the invasion.
This included a raft of sanctions, European countries rapidly reducing their reliance on Russian oil, and the nation being removed from the international payment system Swift.

The conflict has led to an economic war on Russia (Picture: Pierre Crom/Getty Images)
While it rode this economic isolation and partially plugged the gap by selling increased amounts of oil to India and China, the moves still had an effect.
The recent loosening of some sanctions, including by the UK and US, amid the conflict between Iran and America, provided rare positive economic news for Putin.
Despite this, even the country’s own Ministry of Economic Development – usually the Kremlin’s in-house optimist – has conceded the country faces at least two more years of stagnation.
Amid this growing discontent, usually loyal Putin supporters have started to voice their concerns.

There are growing fears that Putin could pressure Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko to join Russia in its fight with Ukraine (Picture: EPA)
A well-connected business leader told the Guardian that there was ‘a growing sense that some kind of catastrophe is looming’.
‘There’s definitely been a shift in mood among the elites this year … there is profound disappointment in Putin,’ they added.
‘No one believes everything will suddenly collapse tomorrow.
‘But there is a growing realisation that utterly senseless, self-destructive decisions keep being made.
‘People who once defended Putin no longer do. Any sense of a future has disappeared.’
This pressure may have prompted Putin to use a speech he gave earlier this month on Victory Day, which commemorates the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany, to say the war ‘was coming to an end’.
How this plays out remains to be seen.
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Nicolas Sarkozy defends against allegations of Libyan campaign funding
Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy is currently facing a retrial in the Paris Court of Appeal over allegations of Libyan funding for his 2007 presidential campaign.
The case’s significance lies in its potential to redefine the political landscape in France, highlighting the risks of foreign influence in domestic elections and shaping future campaign finance regulations.
“I have not betrayed the trust of the French people; this case must end in truth and transparency,” Nicolas Sarkozy stated before the Paris Court of Appeal.
Sarkozy insists on innocence in last day of appeal trial in Libya case

By Emma De Ruiter
Published on
Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy insisted on Wednesday that he had “not betrayed the trust of the French people,” in his final statement before the Paris Court of Appeal, which is retrying the case into allegations that the late Libyan leader Muammar al-Gaddafi secretly funded his successful 2007 presidential campaign.
“This case of alleged Libyan financing of my campaign began with lies and with a conspiracy; it must end in truth and transparency”, he added. “I will never be able to confess to something I did not do; that is not the performance I have been giving in front of you.”
Sarkozy, 71, was sentenced in September 2025 to five years for criminal conspiracy, becoming the first former French president in modern history to be imprisoned.
He served 20 days in Paris’ La Santé prison before being released in November under court supervision. He appealed, and prosecutors followed, seeking to revive the charges he beat and impose a longer sentence of seven years and a €300,000 fine.
On 13 May, the prosecution asked the three judges hearing the appeal to find Sarkozy guilty of corruption, illegal campaign financing and concealing the embezzlement of Libyan public funds — three charges of which he was cleared at his first trial.
Prosecutors called Sarkozy the “instigator” of the alleged corruption deal, going further than the first trial, where judges had found him guilty only of letting his aides approach the Libyan regime on his behalf.
The first court cleared him of corruption on technical grounds, ruling that as a presidential candidate, he lacked the “public authority” status required by France’s anti-corruption law.
The former president has faced multiple corruption cases in recent years, but the Libya case carries by far the heaviest political and symbolic weight, alleging that a foreign dictatorship helped bring a French president to power.
Other members of Sarkozy’s inner circle, including former chief of staff Claude Guéant, former Interior Minister Brice Hortefeux, longtime Sarkozy fixer Alexandre Djouhri, and Sarkozy’s 2007 campaign treasurer Éric Woerth, also face charges in the case.
The appeal court’s decision has been reserved and is expected on 30 November.
Additional sources • AP, AFP
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