The Texas Senate race is tight — essentially tied — and now all about…turnout.

Republican Ken Paxton benefits from the state’s overall Republican leanings, while Democrat James Talarico is boosted by voters’ economic concerns and higher perceptions of personal character to serve as senator. 

Talarico’s standing is helped by more Democrats saying they’ll definitely vote. That leaves the dynamic in the closing weeks very much up for grabs. If more Republicans decide to vote, it could certainly change.

The bulk of Paxton’s voters are backing him either because he’s the GOP nominee or to oppose Talarico, and because they want to support President Trump. 

Where Talarico does well

Some of the economic headwinds facing Republicans nationally are showing up here. The cost of living is the top issue for Texas voters, and most say they’ve been negatively affected by higher prices. Among these voters, Talarico enjoys a sizable lead over Paxton. 

And more see Talarico as having the right character to serve as senator.

Personal qualities matter far more to Talarico’s backers than to Paxton’s. 

Talarico gets 5% of those who identify as Republicans. 

On a wider scale, he draws 9% of people who — regardless of their own party affiliation — say they never vote for Democrats, but will this time. 

Where Paxton does well

But some things are different in Texas than in the country overall: The Trump administration’s deportation program gets more support in Texas, compared to the most recent WTX US News national poll, and that advantages Paxton. 

And outside the economic considerations, Republicans say they feel Talarico represents policies that are a threat to their culture and way of life. 

(Democrats, for their part, feel the same about Paxton.)

A lot of Paxton’s backing from Republicans is an effort to support Trump.

And in a state where few voters describe themselves as liberal, Talarico is viewed as “very liberal” by nearly half. When they describe Talarico this way, they’re voting for Paxton.

Demographics on vote

Texas just has a lot more Republicans than Democrats. That means Talarico needs to do overwhelmingly well with independents and get some vote shift among GOPers, or activate enough new voters to offset that.

He also needs strong turnout from younger voters, who today say they back him in large percentages. Historically, younger voters don’t typically turn out at as high a rate as older voters do. 

Latino voters in Texas swung toward Trump in 2024, but most are now backing Democrat Talarico. Latinos are more likely than voters overall to say higher prices have been a hardship or difficult, and most of them do not think Paxton has the right personal character to serve as a senator.

The race for governor

Incumbent Greg Abbott has an edge over Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the race for governor.

Abbott also receives the backing of 7% of Talarico voters.

This WTX US News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 1,492 registered voters in Texas  interviewed between October 8-16, 2026. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race and education based on  U.S. Census data, as well as to 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error is ± 3.4 points for the sample of registered voters, and ± 3.5 points for likely voters.