The far right’s victory in a German regional election this weekend has offered an early warning of how Europe’s energy crisis could reshape politics ahead of major elections in France and Italy next year.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) emerged as the strongest party in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on Sunday, extending a run of electoral gains that has shaken Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s governing coalition. Its success comes as nationalist and far-right parties across Europe seek to turn soaring fuel and energy costs into an electoral weapon.

The immediate political threat is now spreading beyond Germany. France, Italy, Spain and Poland all face key elections next year, raising the stakes for governments struggling to shield voters from rising gas, diesel and petrol prices while avoiding another expensive round of energy subsidies.

Despite relief measures announced by Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron, the renewed energy squeeze is giving populist parties an unusually potent combination of grievances: household hardship, anger over climate-related taxes and regulations, and opposition to Europe’s efforts to sever its dependence on Russian energy.

Germany has provided the clearest early test. The AfD has campaigned heavily against high living costs and fuel-price increases, portraying them not simply as the result of the latest geopolitical disruption but as the consequence of choices made in Berlin and Brussels.

Energy is particularly useful territory for the AfD because it links an immediate household grievance with one of the party’s central geopolitical arguments. It has called for restoring cheap Russian gas and lifting sanctions on Russian energy, arguing that Europe’s current policy has inflicted severe economic costs on Germany.

Alice Weidel, the AfD’s leader, has described cheap Russian energy as crucial to the success of German industry.

“The established parties want to take the money out of your pocket – fuel is being deliberately made so expensive. We want to lower fuel prices: scrap the CO2 levy, reduce VAT and the EU energy tax to a minimum,” Weidel wrote on X one day before the local elections.

Two days before the elections, Merz announced fuel discounts and fuel price caps in a bid to cut soaring energy prices following damage to a Saudi pipeline that had provided an alternative route to the besieged Strait of Hormuz.

“Whether commuters, businesses, or regular car drivers – the high fuel prices are burdening our country. Together with the states, we are ensuring a tax cut of around 17 cents per litre of gasoline and diesel. This is to apply from 1 October until the end of 2026,” Merz said.

But the German result suggests that emergency relief may not be enough to prevent the energy crisis becoming a wider political liability. That prospect is particularly troubling for mainstream parties in France and Italy, where the cost of fuel has long proved capable of mobilising voter anger and where next year’s elections could give energy policy a much larger national – and European – significance.

France fears fuel shortages

Macron earlier responded to the pressure by convening an emergency security meeting with the party leaders in the Elysée Palace on 18 September. He also announced an upcoming G7 energy meeting to discuss releasing a second batch of oil reserves, pushing the energy crisis from a pricing issue to a potential shortage concern.

“We have to be extremely vigilant, and we do not want to run short. We have rebuilt our gas stocks, and we are securing our supplies,” Macron told reporters after the Elysée meeting.

France consumes around 600,000 barrels of diesel per day and imports half of it, Macron said, pointing to 300,000 barrels potentially at risk of shortages due to damage to a Saudi pipeline.

“We should not frighten people. We have to tell the truth about geopolitical instability and what it creates in our country, and we have to prepare for it. That is exactly what France is doing and what it has accelerated in recent weeks,” Macron added.

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen said tax cuts were the only way to bring down fuel prices at the pump. “The VAT must be lowered from 20% to 5.5% on fuel. The French need it to go to work, to do their shopping, and to pick up their children from school”.

Meanwhile, in Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing government has moved to scrap road tax for 14.5 million cars and motorcycles from next year, at a cost of more than €2 billion, on top of a diesel excise duty cut already costing about €2.8 billion.

Rome had previously asked the European Commission to relax fiscal rules for households and industries struggling with soaring energy costs, arguing that energy security should be treated with the same urgency as defence spending.

The measures are designed to relieve immediate pressure on consumers, but they also show how energy prices are forcing governments to spend heavily to neutralise a potential political issue.

Slovakia takes aim at ‘liberal west’ failed policies

In Slovakia, populist Prime Minister Roberto Fico blamed Europe’s war rhetoric against Russia for distracting from its own failures in tackling rising energy prices and fuel shortages, bluntly opposing military escalation.

“The West’s military rhetoric and the search for a pretext for a military conflict with Russia are intended to distract from the liberal world’s inability to address basic challenges such as the price and availability of energy and fuel, as well as illegal migration,” he wrote in a post on X on Sunday evening.