The Economist – Peak China? The country’s historic ascent is levelling off. That need not make it more dangerous
THE ECONOMIST SAYS The rise of China has been a defining feature of the world for the past four decades. Since the country began to open up and reform its economy in 1978, its gdp has grown by a dizzying 9% a year, on average. That has allowed a staggering 800m Chinese citizens to escape from poverty. Today China accounts for almost a fifth of global output. The sheer size of its market and manufacturing base has reshaped the global economy. Xi Jinping, who has ruled China for the past decade, hopes to use his country’s increasing heft to reshape the geopolitical order, too.
There is just one catch: China’s rapid rise is slowing down. Mr Xi promises a “great rejuvenation” of his country in the coming decades, but the economy is now undergoing something more prosaic: a great maturation. Whereas a decade ago forecasters predicted that China’s gdp would zoom past America’s during the mid-21st century (at market exchange rates) and retain a commanding lead, now a much less dramatic shift is in the offing, resulting in something closer to economic parity.
Read today’s business papers