The election is less than 48 hours away and there are lots of mini battles taking place right across Germany. Bavaria role in 2025 German election is instrumental because Bavaria is a key political battleground dominated by the traditional Conservative-Christian party, the CSU. However, in recent years, the party’s stronghold on the battleground state has been tested by the rise of the AfD.
The far-right political rise or comeback has been quick and notable, and many looking ahead to Sunday’s 2025 German Federal Election will be asking if the key Baravia political battleground state might be up for grabs in the election.
But the people aren’t taking that kindly to the AfD party, there have been protests in Bavaria and social media backlash against the party’s extremist stance and those who are enabling the Far-right.
Bavaria role in 2025 German election
Bavaria is a political battleground and has a large number of seats in the Bundestag in part due to its large population size.
The results from the Bavaria election can play a huge role in the national election and to control Bavaria political battleground remains highly important.
Latest data on Bavaria’s voting intentions ahead of Sunday election
The recent data has given us some insight into Bavaria’s political landscape ahead of the election. All data suggests CSU will win the most seats, and their leader, Friedrich Merz, is on course to become Germany’s new chancellor.
Recent opinion polls suggest the CSU maintains a dominant position in Bavaria with support levels roughly between 42% and 45%.
There has been a notable rise in support for the AfD in the state, with polls showing approximately 16% to 19% backing. This surge aligns with national trends of increasing support for the far-right party.
The Greens have a stable base in the state, whilst the traditionally left-leaning parties such as the SPD, FDP and Die Linke struggle to gain traction or make any meaningful impact on the state’s political landscape.
AfD rise Bavaria 2025 election – Can they win it?
No, whilst the AfD popularity in Bavaria is growing, at present the CSU remains the dominant force. But I wouldn’t be too quick to write off the far-right rise in Bavaria.
All indications suggest the AfD might follow a similar path to the UK’s Reform Party. The party will be lurking in the shadows, looking to reel in any disenfranchised CSU supporters, looking for more radical action on the economy and immigration.
The AfD could see itself finishing in second place in Bavaria but it will struggle to grow its reach in the Bundestag (for now) due to other political parties ruling out any sort of coalition with the AfD.
Is there any AfD support among Bavarian voters
The AfD are seen as a distasteful and feared party in Germany, historically, they have struggled to gain support from women. The AfD’s appeal to women voters in Bavaria largely stems from concerns over immigration and upholding traditional family values.
The party’s base remains primarily made up of men but is gaining traction in rural areas and amongst conservative women, but there has been a recent uptick in support.
It’s not yet big enough to cause the major German political parties any real concern and using Influencers like Naomi Seibt will help reach a a bigger and more diverse audience.
Depending on how the CDU’s four-year term goes, disenfranchised conservative supporters might start moving over to the AfD in Bavaria. The hard work is already done, the media will always showcase immigrant stories and with the rising energy bills more voters will become frustrated.
On Sunday, Germans head to to polls to elect their next Bundestag; significantly, Bavaria role in 2025 German election will show the German people what they can expect for the next four years.